REBALANCE: Foresight for a new mobility culture

How can mobility transform from mere movement between points A and B into a more meaningful, inclusive, and sustainable human experience? This question drove the REBALANCE project. To address it, REBALANCE proposed an innovative foresight approach, combining foresight analysis, future scenario building, and expert dialogues.

In recent decades, mobility planning has predominantly prioritized efficiency, speed, and reduced travel time, neglecting the human and social dimensions of everyday travel. This has resulted in:

• Urban congestion and air pollution, significantly impacting quality of life.
• Social marginalisation, disadvantaging individuals without access to efficient transportation in terms of employment and social opportunities.
• Loss of public space, with streets dominated by cars at the expense of pedestrians, cyclists, and communal areas.
• Increased stress and alienation, as mobility systems emphasize speed rather than well-being and social interaction.

Private transport historically symbolized individual freedom and economic status. However, this narrative is changing. Public infrastructure and urban spaces increasingly reflect the desired type of city: more accessible, livable, and sustainable. REBALANCE identifies the need to view mobility not merely as logistical necessity, but as central to quality of life and social cohesion.

Unlike conventional transport research, REBALANCE emphasized cultural and value-driven aspects influencing mobility at both individual and collective levels. The project’s aim was to conduct a deliberative, future-oriented exercise to stimulate a paradigm shift in mobility policies aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and climate change challenges.

REBALANCE adopted a foresight approach, examining emerging trends and identifying 12 critical uncertainties classified using the PESTLE framework. Factors were selected through research and exploratory conversations with diverse experts, particularly focusing on:

• Lifestyles and travel habits.
• Modal choices and innovation in transport services.
• City vision and public space utilization.
• Social interactions and impacts on urban justice.

This analysis identified key drivers of change, forming the basis for future scenario construction.

The four mobility scenarios of the future

By intersecting two fundamental axes—societal model (rigid vs. fluid) and governance approach (strong policies vs. persuasion and incentives)—four distinct scenarios, inspired by mythological figures, were developed:

• Hercules (strength): A rigid societal model with stringent government mobility restrictions.
• Themis (justice): Governance relying on soft power and incentives, strongly emphasizing social justice.
• Gaia (interconnections): A fluid society based on sustainable connections and soft policy measures.
• Hermes (speed): A reality dominated by speed and hyper-mobility, heavily influenced by digital technologies.

These scenarios are strategic thinking tools, not predictions, designed to guide policy decisions and cultural transformations.

Dialogues with mobility experts, manifesto, and roadmap

REBALANCE involved extensive cultural reflection through multidisciplinary consultations to explore how values, beliefs, and aspirations influence mobility evolution. Concurrently, the project assessed technological transformations challenging established principles, fostering significant cultural rethinking. An innovative methodology facilitated participatory activities and strategic consultations with experts in mobility, urban planning, ethics, and technology.

Central to this were Exploratory Conversations moderated by Andrea Ricci from ISINNOVA, fostering interdisciplinary dialogue on ecological mobility, digitisation, autonomous vehicles, and urban living models. Additionally, ERSILIA organized visionary Talks on mobility issues, while TUD coordinated Generative Dialogues, redefining mobility values from an economic-rational model toward a humanistic-cultural vision.

Workshops, focus groups, and public consultations engaged stakeholders and citizens, co-creating the Manifesto for a new European mobility culture and policy. Another key achievement was the Policy Roadmap & Policy Guide, translating REBALANCE’s vision into actionable policy objectives and targeted infrastructure investments, aligning with the EU Infrastructure and Investment Guidelines. This roadmap serves as a practical reference for European institutions, detailing legislative adaptations, investment targeting, and developing a sustainable, accessible mobility system addressing European citizens’ needs.

The role of ISINNOVA

ISINNOVA played a strategic role in designing and implementing REBALANCE’s methodological framework, contributing to:

• Defining the theoretical framework and identifying cultural and value-driven mobility factors.
• Moderating expert dialogues to achieve tangible results.
• Developing transition scenarios and strategies, supporting the creation of the REBALANCE Manifesto and Policy Roadmap & Policy Guide.

ISINNOVA’s expertise ensured REBALANCE moved beyond academia, concretely influencing urban mobility policies.