It’s a world of complex and rapid changes, and the ability to adapt is critical to ensuring policies and corporate strategies work. What will the world be like in twenty years? Foresight does not predict the future – in fact, it assumes that it is not predetermined. But by investigating emerging transformations, futures thinking aims to identify different plausible futures, depict risks and opportunities, and develop effective strategies to move toward your preferred horizon.
ISINNOVA’s foresight method brings together quantitative modelling with system thinking and a long-term approach. It consists of four main phases:
- Horizon scanning of trends, drivers, weak signals, and wilds cards
- Scenario building to visualise plausible alternative futures
- Back-casting and identification of pathways to move towards a preferred future
- Validation and consensus creation on pathways and creation of short-term strategies
Factoring in your specific objective, territorial scale, time horizon and resources, ISINNOVA will select and adapt the research and participation methodologies to help guarantee the best results. The ISINNOVA foresight toolbox includes:
Research and analysis: including desk review, meta-analysis, impact assessment, SWOT analysis, storyline and strategy drafting and the creation of business plans.
Participatory processes: including workshops, focus groups, expert interviews, surveys, citizen conferences, and web communications.
ISINNOVA has guided foresight processes in diverse sectors, ranging from the future of energy (ENABLE.EU, SMART GRID), transport (REBALANCE, STEERER), governance (TRIGGER), research and innovation (BOHEMIA, SHAPE-ID, LIV-IN), and health policies (FRESHER, RARE2030).
ISINNOVA can adapt its methodology to suit different levels of governance: city level (RUGGEDISED), regional level (POLY-SUMP), European level (Global Europe 2050) and international level (TRANS-EU-CHINA, URBACHINA). We also ally with partners specialised in modelling, such as SEURECO, FEEM, Cambridge Econometrics, OECD and ICL to enrich our scenarios with quantitative estimates.
Foresight can help you to formulate medium- to long-term strategies by:
- Improving a work group’s strategic thinking skills
- Collecting innovative ideas and proposals on actions and strategies
- Conducting public consultations for goal- and priority-setting
ISINNOVA provides its foresight work to several different European Commission Directorates General and to the European Environmental Agency. Ongoing studies include: “Impact of COVID-19 on European Consumer Behaviour”; “Science and Technology and Innovation for 2050 for Ecosystem Performance”, “Future of Mobility”, and “Stories from 2050 – Radical Forward-Looking Imagery of Sustainability”.